By Roger Harvey, Eric Sévigny
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Caillou and Mommy are going purchasing. given that it is raining, they must wear their raincoats and boots. as soon as Caillou sees all that water from the rain, he recalls anything else he has to do earlier than they depart, he has to head pee.
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Extra resources for Caillou and the Rain
High = medium = low Understanding of Physical Mechanisms That Lead to Changes in Extremes as a Result of Climate Change Capabilities of Climate Models to Simulate Event Type Quality/Length of the Observational Record Extreme cold events Extreme heat events Droughts Extreme rainfall Extreme snow and ice storms Tropical cyclones Extratropical cyclones Wildfires Severe convective storms 9 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Gaps in understanding and limitations in the historical data lead to differences in confidence in attribution of specific events among different event types. Attribution of events to anthropogenic climate change may be complicated by low-frequency natural variability, which influences the frequencies of extreme events on decadal to multidecadal timescales. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are examples of such variability. Characterization of these influences is uncertain because the observed record is too short to do so reliably or to assess if climate models simulate these modes of variability correctly.
Ultimately the goal would be to provide predictive (probabilistic) forecasts of future extreme events at lead times of days to seasons or longer, accounting for natural variability and anthropogenic influences. These forecasts would be verified and evaluated using observations, and their routine production would enable the development and application of appropriate skill scores. The activity would involve rigorous approaches to managing and implementing system enhancements to continually improve models, physical understanding, and observations focused on extreme events.
Caillou and the Rain by Roger Harvey, Eric Sévigny