By Stanley K. Smith
This publication specializes in the method and research of nation and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main widespread information assets and alertness suggestions for 4 sorts of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants development, resources of knowledge, the formation of assumptions, the improvement of evaluate standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection tools and can pay unique recognition to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors supply functional suggestions to demographers, planners, industry analysts, and others referred to as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing targeted populations, distinctive conditions, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe ideas for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., institution enrollment, households). They speak about the position of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This entire publication will offer readers with an realizing not just of the mechanics of the main favourite inhabitants projection equipment, but in addition of the numerous advanced concerns affecting their building, interpretation, review, and use.
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Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
Bulatao, R. A. ). (2000). Beyond six billion: Forecasting the world’s population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Booth, H. (2006). Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 547–581. Chi, G. (2009). Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels? Demography, 46, 405–427. Cohen, J. E. (1986). Population forecasts and the confidence intervals for Sweden: A comparison of model-based and empirical approaches. Demography, 23, 105–126.
Chapter 14 summarizes many of the points made throughout the book and provides practical guidance for making small areas projections. Finally, the Epilogue speculates on where the field of population projections may be headed. 4 17 Target Audience This book is aimed primarily at two groups of readers. The first consists of analysts working for state and local governments, private businesses, universities, and non-profit organizations who are responsible for making population projections for states and local areas.
Growth rates) rather than as annual numeric changes. Average annual growth rates can be calculated in two slightly different ways. The first is based on a geometric model: r ¼ ðPl =Pb Þð1=yÞ À 1 where r is average annual geometric growth rate and the other terms are defined as before. , at specific dates). In this example, growth is compounded once a year. Since population growth occurs continuously, it may be useful to use an exponential model based on continuous compounding: r ¼ ½ln ðPl =Pb Þ=y where r is the average annual exponential growth rate and ln is the natural logarithm.
A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith